The Simple Question that Stumped Everyone Except Marilyn vos Savant

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Title	:	The Simple Question that Stumped Everyone Except Marilyn vos Savant
Lasting	:	7.06
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bDid you manage to solve the puzzling problem?/b If not, Brilliant can help you out!brVisit brilliantorg/Newsthink/ to learn math, science, and computer science for FREE, and the first 200 people will get 20 off their annual premium subscription
Comment from : Newsthink

I ran a sinulation using 3 playing cards to represent the 3 doors After 100 trials the result was: It makes no difference if you change your pick
Comment from : Skatakephalos

I picked door #4
Comment from : John Grosman

I've played poker with guys who would stay with door 1 and win every time 😡
Comment from : Hergand Biskell

BS
Comment from : BolsheviksOnZyklonB🥳

Statistically, your odds are better, but that doesn't mean switching is the wise choice Remember, it's in the host's best interest for you not to win Yes, some victory is good, but it is in their interest to have the majority of wins end in their favor, and switching is betting on you being the outlier that gives contestants hope Ultimately, I would rather have faith in myself and be wrong, thus gaining a little faith in others, than to have faith in him and be wrong, thus losing faith in myself and others Never risk what you most certainly have for what you might possibly gain for it is never wise to gamble against yourself
Comment from : DarkPegasus87

i must have high af IQ cuz i learn fast as shit too
Comment from : TheAngelArrow

What kind of stupidity is this?
Comment from : Faldo

2:45 i completely did not understand why door 2 and 3 have 2/3 probability of winning! The odds of winning shouldn't be the same for every door? 3333brbrAlso when the door 3 is revealed to be a loser, the odds of the remaining doors logically change it to 1/2 each one, 50-50brIsn't?brbrOmg this seems so basic to me, i can't figure out why door 2 would have higher chance, it just doesn't make any sensebrI'm feeling overwhelmingly dumbbr3:59 againbrThe 2 remaining last doors gets their chances changed to 50-50 or 1/2 brAnd not 99/100brBecause all the others doors have ben eliminated, vanished,they are not part of any calculations anymore
Comment from : Light

Sorry, but the Monty Hall problem is not rocket science
Comment from : rdspam

That would suck if you had the right door in the first place, but you took this advice and you lost the car 😂 Probability 🤷‍♂️
Comment from : Brown biscuit

Women are smarter
Comment from : Sandra Smith

I watched her on a talk show She does not have an IQ any where near 228
Comment from : Todd Clean

I still don’t understand it What if you chose the correct door to begin with?
Comment from : Arturest

"The Simple Question that Stumped Everyone Except Marilyn vos Savant"brbrUmno it didn't stump "everyone except Marilyn"
Comment from : mjs28s

This is disingenuous I have an IQ of 120, I understood this problem straight awaybrbrThe first door chosen was a goat, and the door you had chosen wasn’t eligible to be shown as goat / no goat, implies that the unchosen door has a greater probability of having a prize by virtue of surviving the first door opening brbrConflating IQ as the ability to see through this problem is the real problem IQ measures a particular sort of intelligence, don’t need a high IQ to make sense of this problem quickly brbrRichard Feynman would have known the correct answer instantly and his IQ was 125 brbrEveryone has intellectual strengths and weaknesses, those math professors should have held their collective tongues but that doesn’t discredit their intelligence or magnify hers
Comment from : Andrew

But you can switch or equally interchange doors one & two because you don't know what is behind them
Comment from : Abbott Hoffman

“IQ test” “smartest person in the world”
Comment from : Lance Anthony

Sorry, but it does not change the odds at all Well, thats my 50 cents
Comment from : Avi Ades

what resolves the "mystery" is, that Monty knows where the car is so his choice is not random, since he would never pick a door, with the car behind it so, no matter if it's door 3 or door 2 or 1 where the car is he will always pick a bad door with the goose behind that means if the car would be behind door 3, he would never open door 3 wouldn't he? but he opens door 2 Isn't it clear now that this doubles the chances of these 2 doors? and you can only have a profit from that increased probability when you step into that increased probability in other words, only when you switch
Comment from : Any Colour You Like

Explain this Paradox: You probably picked a goat with your initial choice since you had a 2/3 chance of picking one Monty reveals where one goat factually is, so the car is probably behind the other door because both goats are probably accounted forbrbrNow, you probably picked a goat since you had a 2/3 chance of picking one Monty (or a breeze) happens to randomly reveal where one of the two goats factually is, but this time the car is NOT probably behind the other door It just has a 1/2 chance of being behind there 🤔 How could my chance of having a goat decrease and my chance of having the car increase? 😮
Comment from : Teacher Mark

Yeah, but does Marilyn have a only fans?
Comment from : Abel Gonzales

One hundred top German scientists signed a document claiming Einstein was wrong about his theory of thermodynamics, [later proven right] he responded, "I don't need 100 to claim I'm wrong, just one to prove I'm wrong!"
Comment from : steve mitz

Switching improves your odds, but certain assumptions underlie this One was stated, namely that the host actually knows which door conceals the auto (the prize) The second (unstated) is that the rules of the game obligate the host to open a door and that door must be one that conceals a goat Third (technically) is that you actually want the car (eg that your neighbor has not threatened to kill you if you bring a car home) The situation is quite different if the host can choose to open a door or not to In this case, the contestant is confronted with the situation that the host has opened a door with a goat behind it (but the host chose to do this for his/her own reasons) In that case, everything depends on the host's intentions (perhaps he/she only opens a new door and asks you to switch if you've already correctly chosen the door concealing the car!)
Comment from : rfeilbert

Run it in a simulator one million times using her logic, and when it proves she wins 50 of the time, get back to us
Comment from : Bruce Banner

How did no one speak about Bayesian Updated Probabilities ?! I remember using Bayes theorem to prove this brbrWish i went to a fancy school so i could have a cool job where I actually use what I learned Now im unemployed and forgetting everything… brbrPro tip: DO NOT GO TO A SHITTY SCHOOL your grades wont matter
Comment from : Alex M

Unless certain that either:brbra) the host is looking out for the contestant;brbrorbrbrb) the host is looking out to avoid the extra expenditure of giving the cars;brbrthe contestant still is faced with chosing between two doors, to reach the car prize at the endbrbrThis still appears to be a coin toss
Comment from : R L

My stupid ass thought to switch because the goat was behind an odd number door and 1 is an odd number 💀💀💀💀💀
Comment from : Ocean Man

Plot twist, contestant switches to door 3 and wins the car
Comment from : joschylux

You lost me when you got to your sponsor
Comment from : sierra maestra

i still don't agree or get it - only if the directions were wrongbrWith two doors left - you have a 50 chance of winning the "prize" (by choosing 1 of Only 2 Doors)brUnless "Your Door" is excluded, it's still 50!
Comment from : David Saitta

The debate over this is just stupid Once the host eliminates one of the goats, the odds and the problem change He didn't add a 4th door keeping the odds the same The contestant is given a second problem to answer by letting them choose to switch doors Door 1 or door 2 His first choice has no impact on this new choice That original problem with a 1/3rd winning chance no longer exists There are now only 2 choices, and those odds are 50 / 50 I don't care how many Nobel prizes you can balance on your coffee table; these academics are wrong
Comment from : Matt Smith

Fine I'll trust I'm dumb and don't get it and she's smarter than me I still ain't changing my choice LOL
Comment from : Kasperx138

228?? That is not correct
Comment from : Mikkel Jensen

lets be clear that IQ is not actually the same thing as intelligence, but rather an indication of general cognitive abilities, as to have true intelligence requires an actual knowledge thus an average IQ person can be more intelligent than a high IQ person if that high IQ person doesn't pursue actual knowledge for whatever reasonbrbralso people can have enhanced cognitive abilities in specific areas but lack in others, thus marking them down on the IQ score I have a good memory and a high IQ and i'm confident that if I got into playing musical instruments i could memorize dozens of songs if i committed to it, but i can never reach any where near the level of Derek Paravicini, an autistic musical savant who's memorized thousands of songs and can memorize a piece of music after only hearing it once But Paravicini is high support needs and does not have the enhanced language skills that I have
Comment from : Eli W

I have always been reluctant to have my IQ determined It's hard enough to keep friends and family as it is The more educated I become, the less people who want to associate with me Good thing I enjoy being alone!
Comment from : Glenn Robert

She mispronounced "learned"
Comment from : Matthias

But the game show host could also be playing with you knowing you have the winning door and that’s the whole point of shows like Let’s make a deal
Comment from : Andy

Actually, your odds are now 50 chance of winning because it’s one of two doors that it’s going to be behind
Comment from : Andy

3 is different from 100
Comment from : Brylle justin Reforma

The monty hall problem is if the host opens another one of the two doors NOT if the host opens door 3
Comment from : Isaiah Salesin

you explained the monty hall problem wrong
Comment from : Isaiah Salesin

What if you picked door #2 first? lol The chances of it being door #1 increases
Comment from : Mary Tataryn

What iq you have does not determine what life you get yourself 🙏
Comment from : ton dg 2010 vr

Personally i would have asked if I was allowed to smell the doors before I chose I bet those goats shat back there
Comment from : nobbynoris

You narrated this video too fast and didn't explain your logic thoroughly enough
Comment from : nobbynoris

Depends on your value of goats 🐐
Comment from : Greta Ferebee

6:06 beautiful stock clip 1 white girl surrounded by 2 blacks (1 female 1 male) and 2 asians (1 female 1 male) as her servants
Comment from : Balázs Nagy

I like an explanation found on another channel: You pick a door Before any other door is revealed, you are given the option to swap the door you have for the two other doors, and if the car is behind either one, you win it In this case, you clearly swap a 1/3 probability for a 2/3 probability br brThe fact that the door is revealed doesn't change the fact that there is a 2/3 probability it's behind one of them, and if so obviously behind one he didn't open
Comment from : Robert DeMattia

there is no such a thing as the smartest in the world there are different kinds of intelligence and someone who has high level of one may and it happens to be low in others emotional intelligence is very low in most of the people
Comment from : bobo sapiens

smooth, how you ended in a commercial! Really smooth actually :D
Comment from : Keith Nash

This question didn't stump me so your title is wrong, nice click bait though
Comment from : Red Eye

Actually this was first solved in 1959 the 3 Prisoner's Problem, before Let's make a deal ever existed Von Savant popularized it Actually the show Let's Make a Deal never actually offered the choice of switching doorsit was all totally hypothetical
Comment from : S Adam Bernstein

Yeah, with the three doors, is the chance of you hitting it right when they were 3 doors(1/3), against the chance of not hitting it right(2/3) brbrAlso, like her opinion on compulsory education Few peoples dare talk against the education Well, there is nothing bad for peoples to learn do things, which otherwise they are not intelligent enough to do, but the education system is there to kill the individuality, and brainwash peoples into whatever the current system is in favor to
Comment from : FaQUE

I bet she was an annoying feminist If you held a door open for her she'd say "I will open my own door, thankyou"
Comment from : Tony Wells

Some people still think the odds change to 50/50 It doesn't Always switch
Comment from : Abby Normal

Seriously though, am I the only one who paused and gave the correct answer before hearing it?
Comment from : C S

How can you make a video that is supposed to be about one of the the smartest people who ever lived and turn it into a video about the monty hall problem which is the material that they introduce to you in the first lesson in a course on probability? Are you really doing her justice?
Comment from : unphased

For those still having trouble conceptualizing thisbrbrSay you choose door number 1 for all 3 combinations of possibilities brbrCar - Goat - GoatbrGoat - Car - GoatbrGoat - Goat - CarbrbrIn each instance, the host will eliminate a door which doesnt have the car (but can't eliminate the door you already chose)brbrCar - Goat - XbrGoat - Car - XbrGoat - X - CarbrbrIn 2 out of the 3 instances, if you choose to switch, you will be switching to a car
Comment from : Grizzly Andrew

Somebody's feeling lonely
Comment from : GnL Out

Can we just imagine that no 1 and 3 having total 2/3 chances and 2nd door having 1/3 chances I got no idea why 2 door has more chances 😂
Comment from : Pronay Chatterjee

To me honestly it seems to change your odds from 1 in 3 to 1 in 2 -- ie from 33 to 50 - brI don't see your it increases it by switching doors to 66 (or 2 out of 3) - brI have to admit I still don't get it
Comment from : drumsofspace

Wow those guys were condescending pricks Glad at least one of them apologized But fuck you Scott Smith! 😂
Comment from : Phaethon

It’s still 50/50 Fight me
Comment from : Romantic Donkey

math may say switch to door #2 for 2/3 odds wisdom says your are bullshitting the odds
Comment from : Eric Shutter

Fallacy Not switching your choice is a choice as if you did switch Therefore the problem resets when asked if you want to switch Still 50/50
Comment from : Surgi Nichi

" What if I wanted to Win a Goat ! ! (wink ) "
Comment from : SuperBlinding

Obviously very smart, but IQ does not measure anything
Comment from : Peter Coates

Would be nice to simply have a great story without all of the feminist BS You don't even realize that you are doing the same thing in reverse that you complain about It is so exhausting
Comment from : bassmanjr100

A brilliant brain, no doubt
Comment from : Yellowstone 2nd Trumpet

It’s sad to think so many geniuses were ignored because they were women
Comment from : Earth Colored Eyes

What if the prize was winning 1 of the 2 goats and not the car? The question didn't state the prize was the car
Comment from : mestizo311

the graphic at 3:29 shows it being a 50/50 chancechanging doesn't matter The narrator says there is a higher chance of winning but there isn't
Comment from : Mostly Mountain Biking

ANother bulshit - at 3:30 your 'game 4, 5 and 6 ' and nothign but a repeat of 1, 2 and 3 So you 'doubling' the losing chance if u 'stay' by increating the losing options from 2 to 4 This is bulshit as games '4,5 and 6' are not real, she just invented them does not represent 'all' possible options but double of all options But hey, Americans love their bulshit So eat it Stay or Switch it will give u exactly the same change of winning, go ahead, try it out in practice Actually in theory, after each attempt chances to win or lose change due to another theory So the practical experiment is not correct either, but it will easily prove the chance of win/lose are not 1/3 or 2/3 but rather more like 51 and 49 Now go learn that math If u roll a dice and get 6, what are the chances to get 6 the next roll? Or not to get 6 Its neither 50/50 or 1/6 or 5/6 There is a math behind this There is no math behind your bulshit 'logic' which is flawed and therefore not a logic
Comment from : Chris Z

basically long story short, statistically, due to numbers and randomness you are more likely in your own decision to choose the random door which is a RANDOM (more likely to be a loser) door when the filter is applied and the other doors are shown to be wrong leaving only one option and your own option, knowing your option you chose is part of the random noise statistically, the filter actually helps you know the other choice is the right one
Comment from : SKY3STAR

Easy explanation:brThe odds of having the wrong door are 2/3brThus, the odds of the moderator revealing you the right door, by revealing one wrong door, is 2/3
Comment from : StrukiTru

But It will be 50 50 odds since one of the wrong doors will be removed regardless if you pick the wrong or right door One door will still be wrong and right Switching does nothing You can't rely on the table as a whole but only in the scenario that applies to your situation Which would just make it 50 50 odds regardless which door the car is behind Right?
Comment from : EastSideBlitz1337

Imagine you have three doors - call them door A, door B, and door C Behind one is a car, and behind the other two are goats You choose door A No matter what's behind the doors, Monty is going to open door B or door C, and reveal a goat It might seem like this is giving you information about his other door and that switching to it will be the better option It seems like it's telling you something, but it's not changing the underlying probabilities The probability that the car is behind door A or the remain door is still 50/50 So switching your choice to it does not actually improve your odds In other words, the mathematical odds are the same What can be different is how you interpret the motives of the host It is only your logical deduction about why Monty opened that door that matters There's no math involved because the odds can't change anyway
Comment from : Teacher Mark

BS you have two options left after elimination one So it is 50 This logic of yours makes no sense
Comment from : Breath of Awareness

If the contestant knows the rules of the game, the contestant knows that the host's action of revealing a goat has to be taken into account because it is not a random action So, in that case, a Bayesian approach is necessary to calculate the probabilities correctly And the correct strategy, given that knowledge, is to switch doors brbrHowever, in real life, that contestant would not have been presented with any rules, so the revealing of door with a goat would be meaningless He couldn't glean any information from the host revealing a goat that would help him make a more informed decision The reason is that there's no causal relationship between the host's action and the location of the car other than that it's not behind that door In other words, the host revealing a goat doesn't actually affect where the location of the car can be perceived So, if the player doesn't know the rules of the game, he wouldn't have any clue that it would be better to change doors
Comment from : Teacher Mark